The Euro Accelerated The Renminbi Exchange Rate In The Era Of Negative Interest Rates

< p > China Merchants Securities macro group released the latest view. Last week, the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" RMB exchange rate < /a > substantially increased by nearly 400 points, while the euro entered the negative interest rate era, the biggest external factor of the exchange rate appreciation. The signs of domestic economic stability are the key internal factors of the exchange rate stabilization.

As the central bank can withdraw from the daily intervention of the foreign exchange market as far as possible, the internal and external shocks will be more reflected in the broad fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate rather than the fluctuation of foreign exchange funds.

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Last week, the RMB exchange rate rose sharply, and the US dollar spot exchange rate closed to 6.2107 on Friday. The total appreciation of the whole week increased by 0.63% or 395 points on P.

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< p > the macro group of China Merchants Securities emphasizes that the euro has entered the era of negative interest rates, the global liquidity has improved, and the risk appetite of funds has picked up. This is an external factor for the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate last week.

The internal factor is that the data in May showed that the domestic economic stabilization signs were more obvious. The trade surplus amounted to about 30000000000 US dollars in that month. Moreover, the PBOC further increased the guidance of the middle price to the market expectation, and the central parity increased 192 points since June.

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< p > opening on Monday, the RMB depreciated 34 points to the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com "US dollar < /a > intermediate price. The spot market Renminbi in the early market temporarily broke through the 6.21 pass to the US dollar, hit 6.2086 of the intraday high point, and then fell off, the latest report 6.2150.

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< p > "the more important thing behind this is that after the reform in March, as the central bank can withdraw from the daily intervention of the foreign exchange market as far as possible, the internal and external shocks will be more reflected in the broad fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate rather than the fluctuation of foreign exchange funds."

China Merchants Securities macro team said.

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The euro P enters the era of negative interest rate, which is conducive to increasing the risk preference of funds.

Last week, the international fund situation in Asia's emerging markets improved slightly.

International funds will pour into Japan to increase the pressure on the appreciation of the yen, which is the result of the reconfiguration of international funds in the world.

The improvement of the epidemic and the more optimistic expectations of the economic outlook led to a significant downward trend in the yield spreads in the eurozone.

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"P", "under the influence of the new easing policy of the European Central Bank, the interbank liquidity in Europe has finally stopped the trend of continued tightening."

China Merchants Securities macro team also said, "but to solve the problem of low willingness to lend, banks need further easing measures."

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"P >" from the internal factors, the economic data published in China in May delivered two important information.

"First, the signs of economic stabilization are more obvious, but the foundation for stabilization is not solid, and the outstanding problems facing the real economy still exist," China Merchants Securities pointed out.

For example, the interest rate pmission mechanism is not smooth, and the interbank liquidity has not been pformed into a decline in the financing cost of the real economy.

Therefore, in the future, we need to continue to stick to the direction of relaxation.

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< p > "moreover, the previous micro stimulus policy has begun to show results."

For example, in May, the ability of bank credit creation was restored, the scale of financial expenditure was heavy, and the strength of infrastructure investment and so on.

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< p > overall, the effect of directional steady growth policy on infrastructure projects is obvious. Some of the investment in hedge real estate and manufacturing industry has declined, and exports have stabilized. The economy has stabilized in the two quarter.

The downside risks of future real estate are still at the end, the interest rate level of the terminal is still at a high level, the expenditure level of the second half of the budget constraint is limited, and the margin of policy easing is limited. The three quarter economy still has downside risks.

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< p > the National Bureau of statistics released the macroeconomic data in June 13th. In 2014 May, the industrial added value of above scale increased by 8.8% in real terms compared with the same period in May. The total retail sales of society < a href= > //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp > consumer goods < /a > the total retail sales increased by 12.5% year-on-year (after deducting the actual price growth by 10.7%); in 2014 1-5, the fixed assets investment (excluding peasant households) increased by 17.2% in nominal terms compared with the same period in 2014.

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