Gui Haoming: 914 Billion 900 Million Days Volume Turnover Reminds Us.

On Wednesday, the spanaction volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities reached 914 billion 900 million yuan, and once again set a record. The daily turnover is 914 billion 900 million yuan, which means an average turnover of 100 million yuan every 1.6 seconds. What is the concept? This is roughly equivalent to the annual turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market in 1994, or the annual turnover of Shanghai stock market in 1996. In May this year, the total spanaction volume of the two cities was 27730 billion yuan. The day is equivalent to 7 days. This has also created the largest single day turnover in the world. Previously, the record was maintained by the US stock market. In July 26, 2007, US stocks created a peak of US $99 billion 500 million in single day trading volume, which was converted to 754 billion 100 million yuan at the rate of 7.579 in 2007.

"Stock price increment" is a stock market proverb that investors are very familiar with. Now the volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities can be increased so much that the two cities' stock index continues to rise substantially. These are all natural investors' desire to see. After a seven year long bear market, everyone waited for the bull to get up. Generally speaking, the volume enlargement indicates that the market is attractive to investors, so incremental funds are constantly entering, which can push up the stock market. Since late November, with the fall of the central bank's interest rate reduction policy, the market has had a clearer expectation of the risk-free rate of return, which has greatly improved the attractiveness of the stock market, especially those low priced blue chips, which has become the object of investors' pursuit. Therefore, it is reasonable and natural to enlarge the volume of the two cities.

The problem is, when a single day Turnover amount When magnified or even reached about 900000000000 yuan, it would have to be considered whether this is normal. Can we simply regard it as the performance of the stock market's benign operation? The most direct sign of whether the volume is normal is whether it has continuity. In recent years, the average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is around 200 billion yuan. Is this quantity reasonable or not, can it guarantee the operation of the large market? Mobility It can still be discussed. However, in view of the relatively stable market trend during this period, such a level of energy is also in line with the actual situation. Of course, when the market is rising significantly, there is a certain degree of volume is necessary, but if the volume is doubled, it is hard to say that it is a normal state. In terms of the spanaction volume of 900 billion yuan, if the Commission for unilateral spanactions is calculated by 0.1%, it will cause more than 2 billion 700 million yuan of stock market capital consumption. If the 250 trading days of the year are all the same, the consumption will reach 675 billion. Now, the margin of margin trading is only 800 billion yuan. Obviously, such a huge volume, the current market can not be sustained for a long time.

Let's have a look. overseas In the stock market of developed economies, the average annual turnover rate is about 0.3-1 times, compared to the daily average of 0.1%-0.3%, and the more developed countries and regions, the lower turnover rate. However, with the current market size of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the turnover rate of 900 billion yuan should exceed 3%, which is far from the mature market level, and also greatly exceeds the daily level of the domestic market. Obviously, this can not be regarded as a normal state, or it can be said that it is not so normal.

The volume of spanactions has had a very complicated impact on the market. Although it indicates that there is a large amount of peripheral capital entering the market, it also seems to have some positive significance in adjusting the investment structure constantly. But from a different angle of view, in addition to consuming a lot of market funds, Sky Trading intensified the speculative atmosphere in the field and encouraged short-term trading, which is undoubtedly contrary to the rational investment and the idea of advocating long-term investment. The problem also lies in the fact that large capital flows into the market in the form of short selling, relying on a big deal to quickly collect chips, and then ramp up the share price. In this operation, it is hard to see how much investment color there is, and on the contrary, it shows some crazy characteristics. The resulting spanaction volume naturally can not constitute a basis for the smooth upward movement of the future market. On the contrary, it is likely to become a trigger factor for a large market volatility. There is also a saying that there is a sky high price on the stock market. Although it is hard to say where the sky price is now, if such a large amount of weather is only a stage price, the impact on the market will be enormous.

The rational stock market should be stable and orderly, and it will not be the normal operation of the market, especially the volume trading. When the market is relatively active, it may be harmless to do it occasionally. But if we continue to create a new record, we should be vigilant. As mentioned earlier, the US stock market created the peak record of single day trading volume in July 26, 2007. Just a few days later, the sub prime mortgage crisis broke out.